My Families' Cars and Key Industry Pivots: Exhaust Emissions Reductions
Left free to compete auto companies will work for the common good. Right?
In looking back through families cars history I was struck by the specs for the 1948 Chrysler Windsor my parents bought.
Specifications from the Automobile Catalog for the 1948 Chrysler Windsor Sedan Fluid-Drive Hydr. Operated Trans. (s-aut. 4 speed) mark its time to reach 60 Miles Per Hour from zero at 21 seconds and its overall fuel consumption at 1 gallon for every 15 miles driven.1
The 15 MPG I found surprisingly efficient for the day (1948). Because I remember the family car I drove high school car, a 1968 / 6 cylinder / 232 cubic inch /AMC Javelin getting only 17 mpg. And the newer Javelin weighed almost 25 % less - 2,826 vs. 3,640 lbs.2 and enjoyed 36 % lower wind resistance. The coefficient of drag = 0.7 for the Windsor was 0.7 and for the Javelin was 0.45.
At first blush it looked like the industry was not improving as much as one would have expected in fuel economy. At the same time the Javelin’s acceleration - 0 - 60 mph in 11.1 seconds about doubled the sluggish speed of the Windsor at 0 - 60 in 21 seconds.
The US Energy Administration statistics for the entire industry seemed to bear out this finding. If we consider the Windsor’s MPG of 15 mpg an average for the light duty vehicles of the time, the same vehicles3 in 1970 delivered only 13.5 MPG.
Then in the early 70’s came the market reckonings. People were getting sick and dying in smog ridden urban areas like Lost Angeles. “Cars had become the primary source of ozone smog, a serious respiratory irritant created when two tailpipe pollutants -- hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides -- are baked in sunlight.” Emotions against ever increasing cars and smog were cresting as the U.S. Congress considered regulation.
But the U.S. auto industry resisted. They “..lobbied forcefully against passage of the standards in 1970, calling them unobtainable, disastrously expensive and environmentally unnecessary. It pressed its case right up to the date of installing the first catalytic converters, and even after the devices put millions of cars into compliance, it fought to have the standards relaxed for cars and not extended to trucks.”4 Nixon signed the 1970 Clean Air Act, and the federal government gave the auto industry a mandate to reform.
Then in 1973 as the OPEC oil embargo hit, all of us owners of big, heavy, low mpg cars waited in long lines for limited gas. The country decided we could also force the U.S. auto industry to improve efficiency (in addition to reducing tailpipe toxins). After all, foreign automakers were already achieving gains. The same cries of pain came from the U.S. auto industry but in 1975, Congress ordered the Department of Transportation to create the first fuel-economy rules, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards which require that a manufacturer’s fleet of vehicles in a given model year achieve a mean fuel economy. Despite their saying it could not be done, automakers increased fuel economy a little bit every year. By the early 1980’s, fleets of light duty vehicles were averaging over 20 mpg.
But then gas became “..cheap again, and the Reagan administration had declined to increase the standards after 1990. Soon Congress defunded the office that wrote CAFE. Over the next two decades, the fuel economy of new cars only improved by 0.4 mpg.”5
Then in 2007 Congress and President George W Bush passed and signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which again raised the fuel economy standards of America's cars, light trucks, and SUVs to a combined average of at least 35 miles per gallon by 2020—a 10 mpg increase over 2007 levels—and required standards to be met at maximum feasible levels through 20306. Again the industry responded with results:
This was good.
In effect our family has ridden this virtuous cycle to ever more efficient, safe and clean cars, like our current “green” Prius doing 48 MPG.:
Then progress stalled with some "back and forth"-ing by Trump and his EPA head Scott Pruitt. (Mr Pruitt rejected the scientific consensus on climate change and thenresigned while under at least 14 federal investigations.7) BUT in 2022 the Biden administration’s Transportation Department came and endorsed CAFE forcefully, “ [it] released a new fuel economy rule to prevent 5.5 trillion pounds of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere and save billions of gallons of gas by midcentury. The new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards require an 8 percent annual increase in fuel efficiency for model years 2024 and 2025 and a 10 percent annual increase for model year 2026…. it marks the most aggressive [CAFE] standard to date and will result in a fleetwide average of 49 mpg by 2026, up from today’s standard of 36 mpg, according to NHTSA.”8
Power and Acceleration
By the way, throughout this entire 70 year period, from 1948 on, acceleration and speed have steadily increased. From the 21 second zero-to-60 mph time of our first 1948 Chrysler Windsor to the 12 second 0-60 time of my 2009 Prius today all autos have increased markedly in speed. That is, fuel efficiency has not hurt speed.
In fact the Toyota Prius Prime 2023 we have our eyes on does 0-to-60 in 6.6 seconds!
Morals of the Story
A fundamental market system produces competition and optimized profitability, NOT the broader good, e.g. sustaining biodiversity or assuring human equity.
It takes an act of congress. That is, people must regulate and control their markets to achieve the broader, higher good, e.g. less toxins and carbon in air
Business organizations and their spokespeople lie to preserve their profitability and equity valuations.
Regulate.
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Notes:
2022 Toyota prius ratings & specs - Consumer reports. (2021, November 18). Product Reviews and Ratings - Consumer Reports. Retrieved November 19, 2022, from https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/toyota/prius/2022/ratings-specs/?pagestop
2023 Toyota prius. (2022, November 15). Automotive News Europe. Retrieved December 13, 2022, from https://europe.autonews.com/gallery/photo-galleries/2023-toyota-prius
Prius 2003 Picture
A brief history of US fuel efficiency standards. (n.d.). Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/brief-history-us-fuel-efficiency
Connors (Carlo), C. (n.d.). 1948 chrysler Windsor. Connors Motorcar Company. Retrieved November 19, 2022, from https://www.connorsmotorcar.com/vehicles/833/1948-chrysler-windsor-fastback-sedan
great pictures of restored Chrysler Windsor just like Jack and Helen's
Explore the automotive trends data. (2022, November 15). US EPA. Retrieved December 8, 2022, from https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/explore-automotive-trends-data#SummaryData
Numbers for zero to 60 and MPG over the years
III, W. L. (n.d.). Auto cafe standards: Unsafe and unwise at any level. The Heritage Foundation. https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/auto-cafe-standards-unsafe-and-unwise-any-level
Kelly, S. (2022, March 18). Decades of lobbying weakened Americans’ gas mileage and turbocharged pain at the pump. DeSmog. https://www.desmog.com/2022/03/18/lobbying-weakened-americans-gas-mileage/
Meador, G. (2021, November 26). Catching up on cars. MEADOR.ORG. Retrieved December 7, 2022, from https://meador.org/2021/11/25/catching-up-on-cars/
wonderful graphic of 0-60 times over time us Cars; Granger and Wendy Meador work for Bartlesville Public Schools. Granger taught physics for 28 years at Bartlesville High School and since 2017 has led the district’s technology and communications efforts.
Meyer, R. (2018, June 20). How the Carmakers trumped themselves. The Atlantic. Retrieved December 12, 2022, from https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/how-the-carmakers-trumped-themselves/562400/
history of industry resistance; some MPG data points
The outlawing of next year's cars (Published 1976). (1976, November 21). The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos. https://www.nytimes.com/1976/11/21/archives/the-outlawing-of-next-years-cars-a-washington-tale-of-unexpected.html
Skibell, A. (2022, April 6). Biden unveils strongest fuel efficiency rule yet. E&E News. Retrieved December 13, 2022, from https://www.eenews.net/articles/biden-unveils-strongest-fuel-efficiency-rule-yet/
Biden position
Staff, G. (2012, May 12). A timeline of changes in automotive fuel economy. Grist. https://grist.org/article/horsepower-vs-mpg/
Toth, J. (2022, September 29). United States risks lagging internationally on fuel economy. Morning Consult. Retrieved December 7, 2022, from https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/31/united-states-risks-lagging-internationally-on-fuel-economy/
Superb chart of total MPG over time.
U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent statistics and analysis. (2012, September 27). U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved December 9, 2022, from https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t=pTB0208
Historic auto industry mpg source
Weisskopf, M. (1990, March 26). Auto-Pollution Debate Has Ring of the Past. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/03/26/auto-pollution-debate-has-ring-of-the-past/d1650ba3-2896-44fa-ac1b-4e28aca78674/
Zal, P. (n.d.). 1948 chrysler (USA) Windsor Sedan full range specs. www.automobile-catalog.com. https://www.automobile-catalog.com/make/chrysler/full-size_chrysler_1gen/full-size_1gen_windsor_sedan/1948.html#gsc.tab=0
source of mpg, weight, etc. by Pawel Zal
Zal, P. (n.d.). Detailed specs review of 1948 chrysler Windsor Sedan fluid-drive Hydr. Operated trans. offered until December 1948 for North America U.S. www.automobile-catalog.com. Retrieved November 19, 2022, from https://www.automobile-catalog.com/car/1948/494675/chrysler_windsor_sedan_fluid-drive_hydr__operated_trans_.html#gsc.tab=0
1948 Windsor 0 - 60 in 21 seconds, 15 mpg, 3640 lbs. weight
Zal, P. (n.d.). Detailed specs review of 1968 AMC javelin 232 six offered since September 1967 for North America U.S. www.automobile-catalog.com. https://www.automobile-catalog.com/car/1968/66305/amc_javelin_232.html#gsc.tab=0
Javelin 232 6 specs 17 mpg and 11.1 seconds 0 to 60; weighing 2826 lbs
Zal, P. (n.d.). Detailed specs review of 1948 chrysler Windsor Sedan fluid-drive Hydr. Operated trans. offered until December 1948 for North America U.S. www.automobile-catalog.com. Retrieved November 19, 2022, from https://www.automobile-catalog.com/car/1948/494675/chrysler_windsor_sedan_fluid-drive_hydr__operated_trans_.html#gsc.tab=0
Zal, P. (n.d.). Detailed specs review of 1968 AMC javelin 232 six offered since September 1967 for North America U.S. www.automobile-catalog.com. https://www.automobile-catalog.com/car/1968/66305/amc_javelin_232.html#gsc.tab=0
“ …“light-duty vehicles”—that is, sedans, minivans, Ford F-150s, and anything else that’s street-legal and weighs less than 10,000 pounds…” - Meyer, R. (2018, June 20). How the Carmakers trumped themselves. The Atlantic. Retrieved December 12, 2022, from https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/how-the-carmakers-trumped-themselves/562400/
Weisskopf, M. (1990, March 26). Auto-Pollution Debate Has Ring of the Past. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/03/26/auto-pollution-debate-has-ring-of-the-past/d1650ba3-2896-44fa-ac1b-4e28aca78674/
Meyer, R. (2018, June 20). How the Carmakers trumped themselves. The Atlantic. Retrieved December 12, 2022, from https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/how-the-carmakers-trumped-themselves/562400/
A brief history of US fuel efficiency standards. (n.d.). Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/brief-history-us-fuel-efficiency
Jay Michaelson (December 29, 2017). "The Ten Worst Things Scott Pruitt's EPA Has Already Done". The Daily Beast. Retrieved December 26, 2022
Skibell, A. (2022, April 6). Biden unveils strongest fuel efficiency rule yet. E&E News. Retrieved December 13, 2022, from https://www.eenews.net/articles/biden-unveils-strongest-fuel-efficiency-rule-yet/